Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 6
Goldman Sachs Lifts Dollar-Yen View to 165 in 12 Months as Yen Slump Deepens
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 6

Goldman Sachs Lifts Dollar-Yen View to 165 in 12 Months as Yen Slump Deepens

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 6

Summary

  • Goldman now sees USD/JPY at 162 in three months, 163 in six and 165 in 12, reversing earlier forecasts of 160, 158 and 155.
  • The bank said higher-for-longer U.S. yields, low U.S. recession risk, gradual Bank of Japan tightening and Japan fiscal concerns should keep pressure on the yen.
  • Last week's four-decade yen low has kept Japan's finance ministry on intervention watch, but Goldman said any market support would likely only briefly interrupt the dollar's rise.
  • Goldman also cut its euro view to $1.14 in three months and $1.12 in six and 12, arguing AI-led U.S. investment and energy disruptions should keep the dollar broadly firm.
  • That divergence leaves Goldman favoring the yen as a funding currency for higher-yielding emerging-market trades, while turning more positive on the Indian rupee and Colombia's peso.

Insights

Goldman's forecast hinges on a strong dollar. Could this very strength derail its recommended emerging market trades?
With Japan's trillions in intervention failing, can the yen be saved without a major policy shift from the United States?
Is the yen's historic plunge a currency crisis, or a symptom of a deeper, long-term decline in Japan's economic power?