Polymarket Drew $1.2 Million in Wildfire Bets as Lawmakers Push New Curbs
Updated
Updated · Mother Jones · Jul 5
Polymarket Drew $1.2 Million in Wildfire Bets as Lawmakers Push New Curbs
1 articles · Updated · Mother Jones · Jul 5
Summary
$1.2 million was wagered on nearly 20 Polymarket questions tied to the 2025 Eaton and Palisades fires, which destroyed more than 16,000 structures and killed 31 people.
Fire survivors, ethicists and the US Forest Service say betting on wildfire spread and containment is morally corrosive and could create incentives for arson or insider trading by people with nonpublic fire information.
Wyldfyre, a new California-focused wildfire prediction platform, has launched simulated trading and says real-money betting is “coming soon,” using NASA hotspot data and fire-perimeter information to price local risk.
Federal and California fire agencies said they do not use prediction-market data, relying instead on physics-based models, weather data and established federal forecasting tools.
Lawmakers have begun responding: bipartisan federal bills introduced in March would bar contracts tied to terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, illegal activity or an individual’s death, though wildfire is not yet explicitly covered.
With millions wagered on wildfires, will new rules ban disaster betting before it incentivizes real-world harm?
Are prediction markets a valid tool for forecasting disasters or simply a way to gamble on human tragedy?
Can blockchain's transparency expose insider trading in wildfire markets, or does its complexity provide cover for unethical betting?
27% of Americans Are Wagering on the Future: The Rise, Risks, and Regulation of Online Prediction Markets
Overview
Online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly evolving as they face growing popularity and intense regulatory scrutiny in the United States. With 27% of Americans now holding active accounts, lawmakers at both federal and state levels are responding to concerns about insider trading and claims that these platforms operate as unregulated gambling. This has led to new legislative efforts and increased criticism, especially after controversial events such as wildfire betting. As a result, the industry is at a crossroads, balancing innovation and public interest while navigating a shifting legal and ethical landscape.