ASML Trades 24.9% Above Fair Value as China Curbs and Tool Delays Cloud Growth
Updated
Updated · Simply Wall St · Jul 4
ASML Trades 24.9% Above Fair Value as China Curbs and Tool Delays Cloud Growth
1 articles · Updated · Simply Wall St · Jul 4
Summary
ASML closed at €1,634.40, about 24.9% above a Simply Wall St fair-value estimate of €1,308.76, even as tighter China export curbs and delayed High-NA EUV orders raise doubts about backlog conversion.
Those risks are colliding with assumptions for roughly 15% annual revenue growth over five years, with the valuation case also relying on stronger margins and a supportive future earnings multiple.
The stock has still surged 10.05% over 30 days, 65.71% year to date and 149.84% over one year, leaving shares valued near €629 billion and less than 4% below the average analyst target.
Further tightening of export controls or slower customer adoption of next-generation lithography tools could challenge the growth narrative and test whether the recent rally already prices in years of expansion.