Holloway Opens at -225 Over McGregor for UFC 329 Rematch

Q: Can the active BMF champion, Max Holloway, escape the shadow of McGregor's superstar return?

Yes — but only if Holloway turns McGregor’s comeback into his own statement win. Right now, the event is being sold around McGregor’s return after five years away, and his celebrity will dominate the promotion regardless of who stands across from him. That is the reality of a fighter who remains the UFC’s biggest commercial draw despite a 1-3 run since 2018, a broken-leg layoff, a scrapped 2024 return, and lingering scrutiny over his recovery and anti-doping history. Holloway, though, has the stronger sporting case. He is the active BMF champion, has fought eight times since McGregor last competed, and owns major wins over Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier. At 34, he is the younger, sharper, more active fighter, and the betting market reflects that, with Holloway installed as a clear favorite. Analysts are split on style: Dustin Poirier expects a dangerous stand-up fight because McGregor’s power can still change everything, while Jorge Masvidal sees it as a bad matchup for McGregor and favors Holloway heavily. The key is not merely beating McGregor, but how. A routine decision may still leave the night framed as “McGregor’s return.” A decisive, memorable finish — especially after losing their first meeting in 2013 — would likely flip the narrative to Holloway avenging an old defeat and beating the sport’s biggest star on the biggest stage of International Fight Week. So Holloway can escape the shadow, but the burden is on him to seize the spotlight, not just share it.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jul 5

Less than a week before UFC 329, early fight-week odds list Max Holloway as a -225 favorite over Conor McGregor at +190 in Saturday’s welterweight main event.
The line reflects a sharp move toward McGregor from the rematch’s opening price, when Holloway was -550 and McGregor +420, even though Holloway has fought eight times since McGregor’s last UFC bout.
McGregor, 37, returns after withdrawing from UFC 303 in 2024 with a broken toe and has not fought since his July 2021 TKO loss to Dustin Poirier ended with a broken leg.
The full card also features Benoit St. Denis favored at -150 over Paddy Pimblett and Gable Steveson a heavy -2800 favorite over Elisha Ellison as UFC 329 anchors International Fight Week in Las Vegas.
Their first meeting came at featherweight in August 2013, when McGregor won by unanimous decision, giving Saturday’s bout both comeback stakes and rematch history.