SportsLine Backs Norway at +175, England's Kane at +135 in World Cup Last-16

Q: Harry Kane scores every 71 minutes, but can he find the net at Mexico's high-altitude fortress?

Yes—but it is a much tougher task than his scoring rate suggests. Kane’s case is strong on form alone. SportsLine’s Martin Green is backing him to score at +135, citing a goal every 71 minutes in this tournament. Kane has already produced repeatedly for England, and his movement in the box, aerial threat and penalty-taking role make him the likeliest English scorer if they do break through. The obstacle is the setting. Estadio Azteca sits about 7,220 feet above sea level, where thinner air reduces aerobic capacity, slows recovery between sprints and changes how the ball travels. England arrived only two days before the match, far too little time for meaningful acclimatization. Thomas Tuchel has acknowledged the disadvantage, and Kane himself has said England cannot truly adapt in that window. Mexico’s defensive and home record makes the challenge even steeper. They have not conceded at the Azteca in this tournament, beating South Africa 2-0, Ecuador 2-0 and Czechia 3-0. More broadly, Mexico have lost only twice in 89 competitive matches there since 1966 and are unbeaten in 10 World Cup games at the stadium. They also have the crowd, familiarity, less travel and extra rest on their side. So Kane can absolutely score, and expert betting opinion still leans that way. But if he does, it will likely come from a set piece, a penalty or one moment of elite finishing rather than sustained English pressure in a venue that strongly favors Mexico.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 5

Sunday’s two Round of 16 matches pit Brazil against Norway at 4 p.m. ET and England against Mexico at 8 p.m. ET, with SportsLine experts highlighting upset and prop-bet angles.
Norway is the site’s standout pick: Jon Eimer backs it to qualify at +175 even though Brazil is a -125 regulation favorite and -270 to advance.
Eimer’s case centers on Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, whose attacking linkup he says can trouble Brazil in what he expects to be a high-scoring match.
In Mexico City, SportsLine also likes Mexico to win or draw at -135, citing England’s shaky Round-of-32 escape and Mexico’s formidable record at Estadio Azteca.
The site’s other featured play is Harry Kane to score at +135, with Martin Green noting the England striker has averaged a goal every 71 minutes this tournament.