Updated

Updated · Fox News · Jul 4

Analyst Backs Over 8 Runs in Cardinals-Cubs Game as Leahy, Imanaga Bring 4.09 and 4.30 ERAs

Updated

Updated · Fox News · Jul 4

Analyst Backs Over 8 Runs in Cardinals-Cubs Game as Leahy, Imanaga Bring 4.09 and 4.30 ERAs

Q: Are the Cubs' recent wins masking a pitching crisis that will derail their playoff hopes?

Yes. The Cubs’ recent surge looks real offensively, but it is also covering up a serious pitching problem that could damage their playoff chances if it is not fixed. Chicago is 49-39 and 9-1 in its last 10, with playoff odds above 75%, so this is not a collapsing team. But the underlying pitching indicators are troubling. The Cubs’ rotation ERA is 4.73, among the worst in the majors, and the staff has allowed an MLB-high 135 home runs. Manager Craig Counsell has acknowledged that the home-run rate is a major issue, and president Jed Hoyer has said the club’s pitching depth has been pushed to its limit. The injury picture is the biggest reason. The rotation and bullpen have both been hit hard, with Cade Horton out for the year and Justin Steele still sidelined after another setback. That has left Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon as rare healthy constants, and even Imanaga has been volatile. His 1.08 WHIP suggests he has pitched better than his 4.30 ERA, but the 20 home runs allowed are a red flag. Over his last three starts, his ERA has ballooned to 11.49. The Cubs can still make the playoffs because their offense remains strong and their current position is solid. But the recent wins do not erase the structural problem: this staff is too thin, too homer-prone, and too dependent on outscoring mistakes. Unless Chicago gets healthier or adds meaningful pitching at the deadline, the hot streak is more likely to mask the crisis than solve it.

1 articles · Updated · Fox News · Jul 4

Over 8 runs is the recommended play for St. Louis at Chicago, with the analyst also calling the Cardinals live underdogs at +134.
Kyle Leahy's 4.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 5.35 road ERA drive the over case, even after a steadier June in which he posted a 3.76 ERA.
Shota Imanaga has a 4.30 ERA and has allowed 20 homers, including three against St. Louis in an earlier start when he gave up five earned runs in 5.1 innings.
St. Louis enters 46-39 with 396 runs scored, while Chicago's injury-hit pitching staff has left the Cubs leaning heavily on an offense that has swung between hot and cold streaks.
Weather is the main caveat: bad conditions in Chicago could threaten the game, and wind blowing in at Wrigley slightly favors the Cubs and the under.

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Fox News3h ago

Sports Analyst Recommends 'Over 8 Runs' for Cardinals vs. Cubs Game, Citing Pitchers Leahy and Imanaga

Vulnerable pitchers face hot offenses. Will Wrigley Field’s unpredictable wind decide this rivalry showdown?

Are the Cubs' recent wins masking a pitching crisis that will derail their playoff hopes?

Will Jordan Walker's breakout force the Cardinals to abandon rebuilding for a surprise playoff push?

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1 total

Fox News3h ago

Sports Analyst Recommends 'Over 8 Runs' for Cardinals vs. Cubs Game, Citing Pitchers Leahy and Imanaga

Analyst Backs Over 8 Runs in Cardinals-Cubs Game as Leahy, Imanaga Bring 4.09 and 4.30 ERAs

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