Oil Analysts Warn of 2027 Glut as U.S. Output Hits 13.9 Million Bpd
Updated
Updated · OilPrice.com · Jul 2
Oil Analysts Warn of 2027 Glut as U.S. Output Hits 13.9 Million Bpd
3 articles · Updated · OilPrice.com · Jul 2
Summary
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs revived oversupply calls after crude slid on faster-than-expected Strait of Hormuz reopening and record U.S. production, with Morgan Stanley saying the market has come “full circle” back to surplus by 2027.
11 tanker crossings on Tuesday versus 24 last Wednesday suggest flows are still far from normal, and many outbound ships were vessels stranded for three months rather than fresh crude loadings.
1.76 million bpd of Iraqi output last month was up from 1.49 million in April but still far below more than 4 million before the war, underscoring how quickly Gulf supply cannot fully rebound.
High shipping costs and suspended or cautious insurance coverage are still deterring shipowners from returning to the Gulf, even as some producers reroute exports through Yanbu, Fujairah and Turkey.
13.9 million bpd of U.S. oil output is fueling glut talk, but analysts cited in the report say uncertainty over Middle East supply and crude-quality limits make a true surplus call premature.