Updated
Updated · yardeniquicktakes.com · Jul 4
S&P 500 Gains 9.3% YTD as Strategists Back 8,250 Despite Tech P/E at 22.2
Updated
Updated · yardeniquicktakes.com · Jul 4

S&P 500 Gains 9.3% YTD as Strategists Back 8,250 Despite Tech P/E at 22.2

1 articles · Updated · yardeniquicktakes.com · Jul 4

Summary

  • Through July 2, the S&P 500 was up 9.3% year to date, and strategists said it can still climb another 10.2% to reach an 8,250 year-end target.
  • The call rests on a view that the AI trade is deflating rather than bursting, leading them to keep a market-weight stance on Information Technology instead of cutting exposure.
  • Investor doubts have grown around AI returns, excess capacity, Chinese competition, falling token prices and the risk that fast innovation could quickly obsolete expensive chips and memory.
  • Valuations remain the key defense against bubble comparisons: the S&P 500 Information Technology sector trades at a 22.2 forward P/E versus 20.4 for the broader index, far below the 55.0 and 25.0 peaks seen before the early-2000s tech wreck.

Insights

Tech P/E ratios seem healthy, but does a market value twice the US GDP signal a bubble bigger than the dot-com era?
With enterprise AI GPU usage at just 5%, is the $690 billion annual infrastructure spend heading for a historic crash?
AI’s biggest bottleneck is now power, not silicon. Can the tech boom survive a potential $5 trillion global energy crisis?