France Tops ESPN FC's 16-Team World Cup Rankings With 18 of 20 First-Place Votes

Q: Power rankings favor France, but Argentina has Messi. Which football giant is most likely to fall first?

Argentina looks more likely to fall first. The strongest evidence is recent form. France has been the most convincing team left in the field, taking 18 of 20 first-place votes in ESPN FC’s rankings, winning its group comfortably and then beating Sweden 3-0. Mbappé has six goals, Michael Olise has been central to their attack, and France’s depth has allowed them to look balanced rather than dependent on one player. Argentina, by contrast, survived a major scare against Cape Verde and needed extra time plus a 111th-minute own goal to advance 3-2. That match exposed how much Lionel Scaloni’s side still leans on Messi. He leads the Golden Boot race with seven goals, but Argentina’s margin for error looks thinner when the supporting cast does not control games. The injury picture also tilts the risk toward Argentina. Reports around Messi’s thigh/hamstring fitness, plus defensive concerns involving Cristian Romero and Nahuel Molina, suggest more fragility in key areas. France has its own issues, notably around William Saliba and the loss of Hugo Ekitike, but the squad appears better equipped to absorb them. The bracket matters too. Argentina’s next match against Egypt is winnable, but if their performance level stays uneven, they are vulnerable sooner than France, which enters its tie with Paraguay as a clear favorite. France may be the top-ranked side, but Argentina is the giant that currently looks more exposed.

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Jul 4

France led ESPN FC's pre-round-of-16 power rankings after taking 18 of 20 first-place votes, with the 2022 runners-up unbeaten and largely untroubled through four matches.
3-0 wins over Sweden, Iraq and Senegal and a 4-1 victory over Norway underpinned that No. 1 spot, with Kylian Mbappé on six goals and Michael Olise emerging as a key creator.
Spain climbed to No. 2 after a 3-0 win over Austria, while Argentina slipped to No. 3 despite Lionel Messi's tournament-leading seven goals after needing extra time to edge Cape Verde 3-2.
All three co-hosts remained alive in the final 16, with Mexico ranked 10th, the United States 11th and Canada 15th ahead of the round of 16.
The rankings were compiled from 20 reporters before the knockout round began and reflect a tournament still open to shocks after Paraguay eliminated Germany and several favorites were pushed deep.