China Would Need 3 Unprecedented Operations to Invade Taiwan, Analysis Says
Updated
Updated · War On The Rocks · Jul 1
China Would Need 3 Unprecedented Operations to Invade Taiwan, Analysis Says
1 articles · Updated · War On The Rocks · Jul 1
Summary
A Taiwan invasion would force China to pull off three military feats with no modern precedent: an amphibious landing under anti-ship missile threat, a large airborne drop through modern air defenses, and an opposed long-range air assault.
Roughly 21,000 troops and one heavy amphibious brigade can be lifted per initial wave by the PLA Navy, the analysis says; even with civilian roll-on/roll-off ships, the first wave would reach only about three brigades.
That lift shortfall matters because Taiwan fields seven combined-arms brigades and 20 reserve infantry brigades, while a single surviving missile battery could fire 16 Hsiung Feng III missiles and disrupt a tightly timed landing sequence.
Airborne and helicopter assaults are presented as workarounds, but transport aircraft and helicopters would have to fly low and slow into Stingers, surface-to-air missiles and limited landing zones, with helicopters also facing 100-mile combat-range demands.
The analysis argues Taiwan does not need to destroy an invasion force outright; preserving enough coastal missiles and low-altitude air defenses to break one wave could be enough to undermine Beijing's chances.
Can China's AI drone swarms and civilian ferries truly neutralize Taiwan's modern coastal defenses for a successful invasion?
As invasion risks a $10 trillion global crash, are China's grey-zone blockades the more immediate threat to Taiwan's future?
Taiwan’s 2026 Defense Revolution: Asymmetric Warfare, PLA Threats, and the Indo-Pacific Power Struggle
Overview
In mid-2026, Taiwan has intensified its military readiness by conducting readiness drills and deploying advanced equipment like M41D tanks, CM21 armored vehicles, and CM23 mortar carriers. The 2025 national defense report highlights the importance of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which is expected to greatly enhance Taiwan’s ability to carry out long-range strikes and improve overall defensive effectiveness. These developments reflect Taiwan’s focus on deterrence and preparedness amid ongoing regional tensions, as diplomatic exchanges between the US and China continue to shape the security landscape in the Taiwan Strait.