Social Security 2027 COLA Estimate Slips to 3.8% as Fuel Prices Fall
Updated
Updated · The Motley Fool · Jul 3
Social Security 2027 COLA Estimate Slips to 3.8% as Fuel Prices Fall
1 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · Jul 3
Summary
A 3.8% estimate for Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment has replaced May’s 3.9% forecast, signaling a smaller benefit increase than many seniors had recently expected.
Dropping fuel prices after the Iran war de-escalated are easing inflation, the key input for COLA calculations based on third-quarter consumer price data.
That softer outlook still follows an earlier 2.8% projection, showing how energy-driven inflation had briefly pushed expectations higher before reversing.
Oct. 14, 2026 is when the Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 COLA after September inflation data completes the formula.
Early December notices will show each recipient’s exact 2027 benefit and any Medicare Part B premium deductions ahead of January payments.