Israel Warns 2026 El Niño Could Lift Rainfall 15% and Trigger 300-mm Floods
Updated
Updated · Ynetnews · Jul 2
Israel Warns 2026 El Niño Could Lift Rainfall 15% and Trigger 300-mm Floods
3 articles · Updated · Ynetnews · Jul 2
Summary
Two Israel Meteorological Service reports say an extreme El Niño expected in fall 2026 could make the 2026/27 rainy season wetter, stormier and more prone to snow, while stressing these are scenarios rather than forecasts.
Models in the reports put Pacific temperature anomalies at 3.7-3.8C—above the 2015 record of 2.6C—and estimate each 1C rise could add 11%-15% to Israel’s annual rainfall.
Rainfall could reach 140%-145% of average in the Judean Mountains and northern Negev, with 136%-137% in the Golan Heights and eastern Galilee; early-winter rain intensity and unusual rain events are also seen rising.
The service outlined worst-case events including four-hour cloudbursts dumping up to 300 millimeters in small areas, plus hail, 100 kph winds, infrastructure damage and possible medicanes affecting coastal cities and lowlands.
Forecasters said unusual events may be flagged three to five days ahead, with location-specific impact estimates typically refined about one day before onset.
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Israel Faces "Exceptional Winter": The 2026 Super El Niño Threat and Urgent Climate Preparedness
Overview
The world is facing a powerful Super El Niño, intensified by long-term global warming, which is expected to peak soon and trigger extreme climate events worldwide. This unprecedented phenomenon is likely to bring severe weather, including extreme heat and unusual rainfall, and may drive up food prices. For Israel, the situation is urgent: the Israeli Weather Service has issued a rare warning, forecasting an 'exceptional winter' in 2026/2027. These developments highlight the growing risks posed by climate change and the need for countries like Israel to prepare for significant disruptions to weather and daily life.