Argentina Face 64th-Ranked Cape Verde in World Cup Last-32 Clash

Q: With an 81% win probability, is Argentina underestimating a Cape Verdean defense that held World Cup contender Spain scoreless?

Probably not, but the 81% projection may understate how awkward Cape Verde could make this. Argentina have earned favorite status. They won all three group matches, have no injury concerns, and Messi has six goals. They also carry a strong World Cup record against African opposition and arrive with a settled, title-winning core under Lionel Scaloni. Opta’s 81% figure reflects that overall gap in quality, depth and attacking power. But Cape Verde’s defense has already shown it can frustrate elite teams. Their 0-0 draw with Spain was not a fluke on the scoreboard alone: goalkeeper Vozinha made seven saves against 27 Spanish shots, and the team’s compact shape, discipline and willingness to defend deep held up under sustained pressure. They also went unbeaten in the group stage, drawing with Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, which suggests their resilience is repeatable, not a one-off. The key point is that Argentina do not appear to be dismissing that threat. Scaloni has publicly warned that Cape Verde are “not here by chance,” while Bubista has made clear his side will not abandon its fearless, counter-attacking approach. That indicates respect rather than complacency. So the odds favor Argentina strongly, but Cape Verde’s defensive record gives real reason for caution. If Argentina are wasteful or allow the game to stay level deep into the match, Cape Verde have already shown they can turn a mismatch on paper into a tense, low-scoring contest.

3 articles · Updated · BBC.com · Jul 3

Miami hosts Friday’s Round-of-32 meeting between defending champions Argentina and World Cup debutants Cape Verde, the smallest nation ever to reach the knockout stage.
Cape Verde earned the tie by finishing second in their group after a shock 0-0 draw with Spain and further draws against Uruguay and Saudi Arabia.
The matchup pits Lionel Messi and a squad valued at 807.5 million euros against 64th-ranked Cape Verde, whose entire squad is valued at 54.5 million euros.
Vozinha, Cape Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper and now a free agent, has become a breakout figure in a run built on a diaspora-heavy squad with only one player in Europe’s top five leagues.
The game underscores the scale of Cape Verde’s rise: a nation of about 530,000 people, independent only since 1975, now faces three-time world champions Argentina.