Keith Law Keeps Roch Cholowsky No. 1 on 2026 MLB Draft Top 100

Q: As MLB eyes a ban on prep draftees, is this the last chance to gamble on a high school superstar?

No. The 2026 draft is not the last chance, but it may be one of the last under the current system. MLB has proposed barring U.S. and Canadian high school players from the domestic draft and requiring players to be at least 20 years old and two years removed from high school. Under the proposal, the change would begin with the 2028 draft, so prep players remain eligible in 2026 and likely 2027 unless negotiations produce a different timeline. That makes this draft important for clubs willing to bet on upside. Keith Law’s board underscores why: after a thin top tier, much of the intrigue sits in high school talent, especially players projected in the 25-50 range who could command over-slot bonuses. Law sees that group as high-upside but risky, and he is especially cautious on prep pitchers because of their higher injury and failure rates. The class still offers genuine prep star power. Grady Emerson is viewed by some teams as having more upside than consensus No. 1 Roch Cholowsky. Other high school names such as Jacob Lombard, Eric Booth Jr. and Gio Rojas are also projected near the top of the first round. In other words, teams still have chances to make the classic draft gamble on teenage talent. Whether this is truly the end of that model depends on collective bargaining. The MLBPA has strongly opposed MLB’s proposal, so no ban is in place yet. For now, the better way to frame it is that 2026 is not the last chance, but it is part of a narrowing window if MLB gets its way.

Q: Will the White Sox draft the prospect who rejected their $3 million offer three years ago?

Probably yes: the prospect in question is Roch Cholowsky, and he remains the leading candidate to go No. 1 to the White Sox. The reporting around this draft consistently points to Cholowsky, the UCLA shortstop, as the consensus top player in the 2026 class. Keith Law kept him No. 1 on his latest Big Board, praising his combination of plus defense, arm strength, on-base ability and power. Other industry coverage also says the White Sox, who hold the first overall pick, are widely projected to take him. The “rejected their $3 million offer” reference aligns with Cholowsky’s 2023 decision to pass on pro ball and attend UCLA. The available reporting does not fully confirm that exact $3 million figure in every account, but it does establish that the White Sox had strong interest in signing him out of high school and that he chose college instead. Since then, he has only strengthened his case, adding strength, producing back-to-back 20-homer seasons and solidifying himself as the safest top-of-the-draft profile. That said, it is not settled. Some mock-draft chatter has linked the White Sox to other options, including catcher Vahn Lackey or prep shortstop Grady Emerson, and bonus strategy could still affect the final call. Law also stresses that his rankings are not predictions of actual draft order. Still, based on the current reporting, Cholowsky is the most likely answer: the White Sox appear well positioned to draft the same player they failed to sign three years ago.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jul 1

Roch Cholowsky stayed atop Keith Law’s mostly final 100-player draft board ahead of the July 11 MLB Draft, with Law calling him the consensus top prospect despite the field narrowing this spring.
Top-5 context drove the ranking: catcher Caden Lackey sits close behind Cholowsky, Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell ranks third despite a shoulder issue, prep shortstop Briggs Emerson leads high school bats, and Jackson Flora is the top pitcher.
Law said the class drops off quickly after about five players, with limited premium pitching and several college position players failing to build on preseason expectations.
Picks 25 to 50 could still offer value through a deep, risky group of high school players who may command over-slot bonuses, making extra picks and bonus pool space especially useful this year.
The board excludes signability and private medical information and is not a projection of actual draft order; Law said he may still make small changes before draft day.