Jon Eimer Backs Under 2.5 Goals in Spain-Austria Match as Spain Sits at -370

Q: Spain dominated its group 5-0, so why is their form being called a 'coin-flip' against underdog Austria?

Spain’s 5-0 group-stage goal difference looks dominant, but it masks uneven performances, which is why analysts are warning that their level is less reliable than the scoreline suggests. The biggest red flag was the 0-0 draw with Cape Verde. Spain controlled possession but failed to break down a much weaker opponent, raising doubts about their finishing and their ability to handle compact, defensive teams. Even their 1-0 win over Uruguay was not widely seen as a fully convincing display, while the 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia was the one match in which they looked close to their best. That inconsistency is what Jon Eimer meant by a “coin-flip.” Spain clearly has the higher ceiling and remains a heavy favorite, but the concern is whether the sharp, fluid version of Spain shows up or the blunt, wasteful one. Fitness questions around key attackers such as Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have added to that uncertainty. Austria also contributes to the caution. They have been one of the more lively underdogs in the tournament, scoring six goals in the group stage and showing resilience in a dramatic 3-3 draw with Algeria. Under Ralf Rangnick, Austria’s pressing style can disrupt possession-heavy teams like Spain and turn the match into a lower-scoring, uncomfortable knockout game. So the issue is not that Spain is no longer favored. It is that their results have been better than some of their performances, making their true form harder to trust.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 2

Under 2.5 goals at +106 is Jon Eimer's featured pick for Thursday's World Cup Round of 32 match between Spain and Austria in Inglewood, California.
Spain enters as the clear favorite at -370 on the 90-minute money line and -1200 to advance, while Austria is priced at +1100 to win and +680 to qualify.
Eimer said Spain is the more talented side but has not played to its level, calling the matchup one of the harder Round of 32 games to project.
Spain won Group H with a 5-0 goal differential, while Austria finished second in Group J after beating Jordan 3-1, losing 2-0 to Argentina and drawing Algeria 3-3.
Eimer, on a 25-15-2 World Cup run and 31-13-2 in Champions League picks this year, also said he identified two plus-money best bets beyond the total.