Goldman Sees World Cup Lifting June Payrolls by 40,000 to 140,000
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 1
Goldman Sees World Cup Lifting June Payrolls by 40,000 to 140,000
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 1
Summary
140,000 June payroll gains are now Goldman Sachs' forecast, 25,000 above the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus and down from May's 172,000 increase.
Homebase payroll data drove the upgrade: hiring in 11 World Cup host cities fell 1.2% from a year earlier versus a 3.5% drop elsewhere, while hospitality hiring rose 9.5%.
Goldman said the tournament's boost should be concentrated in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation.
Even with that lift, June hiring would remain below May's pace, though far stronger than the 20,000 jobs lost in June 2025; Goldman also noted first June payroll estimates often carry an upward bias before later revisions.