Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Jul 2
The Athletic Backs Portugal, Spain and Switzerland in 3 World Cup Round-of-32 Matches
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Jul 2

The Athletic Backs Portugal, Spain and Switzerland in 3 World Cup Round-of-32 Matches

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jul 2

Summary

  • The Athletic’s Matchday 22 forecast picks Portugal over Croatia, Spain over Austria and Switzerland over Algeria, with the algorithm and guest reader Jeff aligned on Portugal and Spain but split on Algeria-Switzerland.
  • Spain drew the strongest consensus—experts, Algo, Jeff, Wilfred and Stanley all chose them—despite concerns that Luis de la Fuente’s side still lean heavily on Lamine Yamal and remain an uneven attacking unit.
  • Portugal’s tie carries a 5/5 streak-risk rating because Roberto Martinez’s team have looked less convincing than their talent suggests, while Croatia’s experienced squad has again shown the grit that makes it dangerous in knockout games.
  • Switzerland enter as favorites after trending upward in the group stage, but Algeria arrive with momentum from a chaotic 3-3 draw with Austria in which 35-year-old Riyad Mahrez scored his first 2 World Cup goals.
  • The new picks follow a dramatic Matchday 21 in which Harry Kane rescued England, Belgium rallied from 2-0 down to beat Senegal, and The Athletic’s prediction algorithm reclaimed the leaderboard at 66% accuracy.

Insights

An algorithm is beating human experts at World Cup predictions. Is the beautiful game now just a numbers game?
As a 41-year-old legend and an 18-year-old prodigy shine, is this the World Cup's biggest generational showdown?
Without its star striker, can the USMNT's unique coaching philosophy propel them past Belgium's experienced squad?