Polymarket Saw 70% of Closed Markets Stay Under $10,000, Leaving Thin Trading to Bots
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 2
Polymarket Saw 70% of Closed Markets Stay Under $10,000, Leaving Thin Trading to Bots
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 2
Summary
About 70% of Polymarket’s closed markets from 2021 through May 2026 logged under $10,000 in reported volume, CNBC found, and nearly 5% of markets showed no volume at all.
Thin trading leaves users exposed to sharp price swings and wider bid-ask spreads, economists said, making low-volume contracts more volatile and more expensive to trade.
More than 80% of volume in Polymarket markets under $10,000 came from bots, according to University of San Diego professor Joshua Della Vedova, though he said bots still prefer larger markets where profits are easier to scale.
Only 8% of completed markets on Polymarket and Kalshi reached $1 million in volume, and some researchers said those higher-volume markets tend to produce more reliable probabilities, even if thin markets are not automatically inaccurate.
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane said shallow markets are unlikely to undermine prediction markets’ broader influence, but traders still need to weigh liquidity risks as overall platform volume keeps growing.