USDA Sees 9.4% Beef Price Jump in 2026 as U.S. Cattle Herd Shrinks 8%
Updated
Updated · WKYT · Jul 1
USDA Sees 9.4% Beef Price Jump in 2026 as U.S. Cattle Herd Shrinks 8%
1 articles · Updated · WKYT · Jul 1
Summary
Wholesale beef prices are projected to rise 9.4% in 2026, with relief unlikely soon because U.S. cattle supplies remain too tight to meet demand.
The USDA says the national herd fell from 94.7 million head in 2019 to 86.7 million by January 2025, an 8% drop that has steadily pushed prices higher.
Drought has been the main driver, shrinking grazing land and forcing ranchers either to pay more for feed and water or sell cattle that would otherwise be kept for breeding.
Other supply pressures include ICE raids on meatpacking plants, tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and limits on Mexican cattle imports tied to screwworm concerns.
Rebuilding herds will take years: cows need about nine months to gestate, and calves take roughly 18 months to reach slaughter weight.