Updated · Chicago Council on Global Affairs · Jul 1
NATO's 32 Leaders Convene in Ankara for 5% Spending Push as Trump Doubts Test Alliance
Updated
Updated · Chicago Council on Global Affairs · Jul 1
NATO's 32 Leaders Convene in Ankara for 5% Spending Push as Trump Doubts Test Alliance
3 articles · Updated · Chicago Council on Global Affairs · Jul 1
Summary
July 7-8, leaders of all 32 NATO members will meet in Ankara for a shortened summit centered on tracking progress toward the alliance's new goal of spending 5% of GDP on defense by 2035.
A 20% rise in defense spending by European allies and Canada since last year has helped set up expected announcements of billions of dollars in new defense contracts, but the gathering is also designed to keep Donald Trump engaged with NATO.
Trump's threats to annex Greenland, his unilateral war with Iran and allies' refusal to join parts of that campaign have sharpened doubts about Washington's reliability and exposed widening splits over whether Russia remains NATO's central threat.
Polling underscores the trust problem: confidence among Americans that European allies would defend the United States fell to 47% from 62% in 2025, even as two-thirds still support maintaining or increasing the US commitment to NATO.
Council experts warn the summit's shorter format and brief declaration may paper over disputes while leaving bigger questions unresolved, from Ukraine support and US force cuts in Europe to NATO's longer-term security role across Europe and Eurasia.
With US leadership fading, is Europe's push for military autonomy a realistic strategy or a hollow promise?
As the US pulls troops from Europe, can its nuclear umbrella truly shield allies from a conventional Russian threat?
The 2026 NATO Ankara Summit and the 5% Defense Spending Target: A Turning Point for Alliance Deterrence and Resilience
Overview
The 2026 NATO Ankara Summit, convening in Turkey, marks a pivotal moment for the alliance as it faces profound geopolitical shifts and rising security demands. Building on the strategic direction set at the 2025 Hague Summit, NATO leaders are focused on ensuring readiness for current and future threats. A central agenda item is implementing the historic commitment for member states to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with specific allocations for core defense and related investments. This ambitious goal highlights NATO’s resolve to strengthen collective defense and adapt to a rapidly changing security landscape.