144 suspected drone sightings across Europe from 2024 to 2026 were likely launched from Russian shadow-fleet ships, the IISS said, tying the incursions to airport disruptions and surveillance of military sites.
Late 2025 brought the sharpest wave, temporarily shutting airports in Germany, Spain and Denmark as the campaign sought to test NATO air defenses while staying below the threshold for a collective alliance response.
Shadow ships including the Vezhen and Boracay were near several incidents, the report said, though officials in Britain, France, the Netherlands and elsewhere said attributing individual flights directly to Moscow remains difficult.
European commanders said low, slow drones can evade systems built for missiles, and Denmark has already acknowledged detection shortfalls while it and other countries move to strengthen counter-drone defenses.
The report casts the incursions as part of a broader Russian hybrid pressure campaign since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with NATO officers warning such drone threats are becoming the new normal.