SNAP Enrollment Drops 12% as 29% of Consumers Use BNPL for Groceries

Q: Why are beef prices hitting record highs while egg prices are forecast to drop by over 30%?

Beef is at record highs because supply is unusually tight, while egg prices are expected to fall because supply is recovering. For beef, the main driver is a historically small U.S. cattle herd. USDA data cited in the background shows the herd fell to about 86.7 million head by early 2025, the lowest in roughly 74 years. Years of drought, expensive feed, high borrowing costs and other operating pressures pushed ranchers to reduce herds, and cattle production cannot rebound quickly because rebuilding takes years. That shortage has been reinforced by limits on live cattle imports across the southern border and by higher fuel, fertilizer and transport costs. At the same time, consumer demand for beef has remained resilient, so fewer animals are being sold into a market where buyers are still willing to pay. Eggs are moving in the opposite direction because the shock that drove prices up is easing. The USDA outlook in the background says egg prices are forecast to drop about 30.4% in 2026 as production recovers from avian influenza outbreaks. As laying flocks are rebuilt and more eggs reach the market, the supply squeeze that caused earlier spikes is fading. That larger supply is putting downward pressure on prices. So the divergence comes down to different supply cycles: beef faces a long, slow recovery from herd losses, while eggs can rebound much faster once poultry flocks recover from disease disruptions.

2 articles · Updated · IndexBox, Inc. · Jun 29

More than 4.8 million people left SNAP in March from a year earlier, a roughly 12% drop, while 29% of consumers said they used buy now, pay later loans for groceries.
H.R. 1 tightened SNAP eligibility after President Donald Trump signed it last summer, and 54% of grocery BNPL users said they could not make ends meet without those loans.
Grocery strain is showing up in shopping behavior: weekly food and beverage unit sales fell 0.9% year over year in the week ended May 31, with every week in May posting declines.
Prices remain a key pressure point, with food-at-home inflation running at 2.7% in May; beef and veal rose about 13%, instant coffee 24%, and tomatoes 32%.
Consumer sentiment rose 9% in June after four monthly declines, but it was still 13% below January and 19% lower than a year earlier, underscoring persistent household stress.