Kalshi Traders See 4.2% May CPI Peak as Gasoline Falls From $4.50 and Oil Slips Below $70
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 1
Kalshi Traders See 4.2% May CPI Peak as Gasoline Falls From $4.50 and Oil Slips Below $70
2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 1
Summary
Kalshi traders now assign just a 28% chance that 2026 headline inflation rises above May’s 4.2% CPI rate, signaling bets that inflation already peaked.
A June CPI decline of 0.2% is now the market’s base case, tracking Wall Street estimates as falling gasoline prices ease the biggest recent source of price pressure.
AAA put average U.S. gasoline at $3.84 on Wednesday, down from more than $4.50 at the peak, while U.S. crude has dropped below $70 a barrel for the first time since the war began.
That reversal followed a U.S.-Iran detente and partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the late-February war and closure had driven energy higher; energy accounted for 60% of May’s monthly CPI increase.
The next test for that view comes July 14, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June CPI report that settles Kalshi’s inflation contracts.