Cantor Sees Bitcoin Bottoming by October 2026 as BTC Sits 51% Below 2025 Peak
Updated
Updated · CoinDesk · Jul 1
Cantor Sees Bitcoin Bottoming by October 2026 as BTC Sits 51% Below 2025 Peak
1 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · Jul 1
Summary
October 2026 is the likely window for a bitcoin bear-market bottom, Cantor Fitzgerald said, arguing the market is in its late-cycle phase rather than at the start of a deeper collapse.
252 days after its 2025 peak, bitcoin was down about 51% as of June 10; across the last three cycles, BTC bottomed an average 384 days after peaking, pointing to late October if the pattern holds.
ETF outflows, high interest rates and weaker risk appetite drove the recent selloff, though Cantor cautioned macro, regulatory and geopolitical risks make the cycle model an imperfect timing tool.
Around $59,500 at publication, bitcoin still outperformed ether and most major altcoins in the downturn, while DeFi and tokenization showed relative resilience.
Cantor said the next winners will be tokens that turn usage into cash flow or monetary demand, and it started Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies at overweight with $7.90 and $0.90 targets.
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Navigating Bitcoin’s 2026 Bear Market: Price Drops, Institutional Retreat, and What’s Next
Overview
As of mid-2026, Bitcoin is in a confirmed bear market, with its price falling below $60,000 due to a mix of global macroeconomic pressures and crypto-specific factors. Unlike previous downturns, this bear market is marked by a larger, more liquid institutional investor base, which has helped moderate volatility. The current decline is shaped by persistent inflation, cautious central bank policies, and shifting institutional investment flows. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin’s growing adoption by major banks and investment firms sets this period apart, suggesting that while the market faces strong headwinds, its underlying structure is evolving and potentially more resilient than in past cycles.