Refinance demand is regaining traction: refinance applications rose 17% from a year earlier and made up 40.3% of total mortgage applications, even as overall applications fell 3.8% in the week ended June 12.
Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.47% on June 18, down from 6.52% a week earlier and 6.81% a year ago, reviving borrower interest after a long stretch of elevated rates.
Rocket stands to benefit most directly because higher refinancing can lift origination volumes and servicing recapture; management sees Q2 2026 adjusted revenue at $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion, with Mr. Cooper synergies including $400 million in cost savings.
AGNC and Annaly could gain through stronger mortgage-backed security valuations and book values if rate declines stay orderly, though faster prepayments would pressure cash flows; Annaly's portfolio stood at $106.7 billion as of March 31.