June payroll growth is expected to lean heavily on leisure and hospitality, with analysts projecting a 75,000 gain there and only subdued hiring across most other sectors.
May's headline was flattered by 55,000 local government jobs and 70,000 leisure gains; excluding government, leisure and health care, payrolls were essentially flat, pointing to weaker underlying momentum.
Outside leisure, private payrolls are forecast to rise just 50,000, government jobs to fall 10,000, and claims data to signal further labor-market cooling even as manufacturing stays slightly positive.
Unemployment is still seen holding at 4.3%, with employment expected to outpace labor-force growth slightly, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise another 0.3% and annual wage growth stay near 3.5%.
That mix suggests the World Cup may temporarily prop up June hiring, masking a broader slowdown from the roughly 150,000 monthly gains seen in March and April.