Traders Lift Fed July Hike Bets to 36% as Warsh Sharpens Price-Stability Focus
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 30
Traders Lift Fed July Hike Bets to 36% as Warsh Sharpens Price-Stability Focus
3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 30
Summary
Interest-rate swaps now price about 9 basis points of a quarter-point move for July, implying roughly a 36% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates next month.
Fed funds traders have increased short positions after new Chair Kevin Warsh shifted attention toward price stability, making a July hike thinkable after odds had been near zero.
Economic data due before the meeting could still derail those bets, leaving July tightening a minority expectation despite the sharp repricing.