BLS Keeps Arizona's 31,100 October 2023 Job Drop in 2026 Revision
Updated
Updated · Arizona Big Media · Jun 30
BLS Keeps Arizona's 31,100 October 2023 Job Drop in 2026 Revision
2 articles · Updated · Arizona Big Media · Jun 30
Summary
April 2026 benchmark revisions erased Arizona's apparent 2024 payroll slump but left a 31,100 nonfarm job drop in October 2023 that the analysis says still looks implausible.
The new 2026 vintage revised payroll data back to early 2024, bringing it close to the 2024 estimates and reversing the 2025 vintage's reported 53,900 March-to-August 2024 decline.
That leaves Arizona with a recurring pattern of sharp spring and summer weakness in successive data vintages, raising the question of whether 2025 softness will also be revised away in 2027.
A second anomaly has emerged in 2026: household-survey resident employment is falling while establishment-survey payroll jobs are rising, an unusual divergence for two series that usually track the same labor-market trend.