Michigan Sentiment’s 49.5 Reading Overstates Gloom After 9-Point Web Shift and Republican Undersampling
Updated
Updated · natesilver.net · Jun 29
Michigan Sentiment’s 49.5 Reading Overstates Gloom After 9-Point Web Shift and Republican Undersampling
1 articles · Updated · natesilver.net · Jun 29
Summary
A 49.5 University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading likely makes Americans look far gloomier than they are, with the report arguing the index is no longer comparable with pre-2024 levels.
April-to-July 2024’s shift from phone to fully web-based polling appears to have pushed sentiment down by nearly 9 points, even though the phone and web series still moved closely together.
Republicans are also underrepresented in the sample as Democrats were recruited more heavily and returned for reinterviews at higher rates, widening a partisan sentiment gap that the analysis says now approaches 53 points.
Reweighting the survey to Pew’s NPORS and adjusting for the mode change lifts the index from Great Recession-like lows to levels more consistent with 2013 and with Conference Board, Gallup and YouGov measures.
The broader implication is that the much-debated 'vibecession' may be partly a polling artifact, even as Trump remains unpopular and economic views stay historically weak.