Talarico, Paxton Tie at 47% in Texas Senate Poll as Hispanic Support Swings 61-29
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Jun 30
Talarico, Paxton Tie at 47% in Texas Senate Poll as Hispanic Support Swings 61-29
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 30
Summary
A New York Times/Siena poll puts Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton deadlocked at 47% in Texas, making the race a tossup in a state Republicans have long dominated.
The tie reflects a favorable national climate for Democrats and a matchup between an unpopular Republican nominee and a popular Democratic challenger, conditions the poll says have aligned unusually well.
Hispanic voters are a major driver: Talarico leads Paxton 61%-29% among that bloc, a sharp reversal from 2024, when the Hispanic vote was essentially even.
That shift may partly reflect turnout dynamics rather than broad party conversion, because Donald Trump's 2024 gains with Hispanic voters were concentrated among irregular presidential-year voters who may skip the midterm.