Updated · Carnegie Endowment for International Peace · Jun 25
EU Drafts Security Strategy Around Trump Risk as NATO Article 5 Doubts Go Unnamed
Updated
Updated · Carnegie Endowment for International Peace · Jun 25
EU Drafts Security Strategy Around Trump Risk as NATO Article 5 Doubts Go Unnamed
3 articles · Updated · Carnegie Endowment for International Peace · Jun 25
Summary
European leaders are shaping a new EU security strategy around the risk of U.S. disengagement, yet the document is expected to avoid explicitly naming Donald Trump or questioning NATO guarantees.
Trump’s November 2025 National Security Strategy and his administration’s hostile rhetoric toward Europe have deepened transatlantic strains, but many EU officials fear public criticism could provoke a self-fulfilling break.
That caution could make it harder to win support for higher defense spending even as the strategy pushes familiar remedies—building defense and tech capacity, cutting dependencies, boosting resilience, and backing Ukraine.
The commentary argues the strategy could still matter if it links security goals to the next EU budget, allows flexible coalitions without fragmenting the bloc, and starts institutional reforms within existing treaties.
At the broadest level, the EU’s drive for strategic autonomy is likely to remain constrained until member states publicly acknowledge how far the transatlantic relationship has deteriorated.
Europe plans a €500 billion defense overhaul. Is this enough to end its military reliance on an unpredictable United States?
As Europe rearms, is it forging a stronger NATO partner for the U.S. or a future strategic rival?
Europe at a Crossroads: Accelerating Strategic Autonomy Amid US Uncertainty and Rising Security Threats (2026)
Overview
In mid-2026, Europe is urgently moving toward strategic autonomy due to eroding trust in traditional security alliances and a volatile global environment. This shift is driven by public demand for Europe to take charge of its own defense, especially as the United States, under President Trump, has become unpredictable and less reliable. The intensified security threats around Europe and a strong consensus for greater independence have led to new defense strategies and increased investment. Recent public opinion surveys confirm broad support for this direction, highlighting Europe's determination to prepare for a future where its security depends primarily on its own capabilities.