Dollar Hits Peak Strength as CFTC Data Show Near-2012 Long Positioning
Updated
Updated · robinjbrooks.substack.com · Jun 29
Dollar Hits Peak Strength as CFTC Data Show Near-2012 Long Positioning
3 articles · Updated · robinjbrooks.substack.com · Jun 29
Summary
June 23 CFTC data showed traders almost as long the dollar as in 2012 and 2014, reinforcing the view that post-Fed gains have pushed positioning to an extreme.
June 17 should have favored a weaker dollar because Trump signed a deal ending the Iran war that day, but the currency still climbed as markets read the Fed meeting as hawkish enough to overwhelm the usual risk-on pullback.
Oil prices have since tumbled, a shift likely to ease inflation in coming months and undercut the case for further Fed tightening that many investors appear to be pricing in.
That leaves the dollar vulnerable in the rest of 2026, with stretched long positions setting up markets for disappointment if the Fed proves less hawkish than expected.