New Models Show Earth May Escape Sun in 5 Billion Years as Mercury, Venus Are Engulfed
Updated
Updated · Livescience.com · Jun 28
New Models Show Earth May Escape Sun in 5 Billion Years as Mercury, Venus Are Engulfed
3 articles · Updated · Livescience.com · Jun 28
Summary
Astronomers now project Earth could survive the sun’s giant phases by shifting to an orbit just outside the star’s expanded radius, revising the long-held view that engulfment was certain.
State-of-the-art simulations paired with observations of L2 Puppis — a dying sunlike star 200 light-years away — suggest solar mass loss may weaken the sun’s gravity enough to offset tidal drag.
Mercury and Venus still appear doomed in the models, while Earth’s fate hinges on a narrow balance between those tidal forces and how much mass the future sun sheds.
The biggest remaining uncertainty is the sun’s future mass-loss rate, and researchers say better observations — including from ESA’s PLATO mission launching next year — could sharpen the forecast.