Martin Green Backs Under 2.5 Goals in Canada-South Africa, With Canada -380 to Advance

Q: Will Canada's returning star Alphonso Davies be enough to overcome South Africa's disciplined defense in their historic knockout clash?

Davies’ return should help Canada, but he is unlikely to be enough on his own against South Africa’s disciplined defense. The key detail is that Alphonso Davies is available only after missing the group stage with a hamstring injury, and the latest team information indicates he is on the bench rather than starting. That limits how much he can shape the match from the outset, even if his pace and dribbling give Canada a major lift later. Jesse Marsch has said Davies changes Canada’s attacking ceiling, but this is still expected to be a tight, low-scoring game. South Africa’s strength is its structure. Hugo Broos’ side typically plays with five at the back, stays compact, and looks to counter through wide areas and Lyle Foster. They have not scored more than once in any match, but they have also proved difficult to break down in a low block. With Teboho Mokoena back in midfield, South Africa should be tougher through the center. Canada still has the stronger overall attacking profile. Jonathan David has been in form, Cyle Larin remains a threat, and Stephen Eustáquio’s return improves control and service. Betting markets strongly favor Canada, and expert projections point to a match with few goals rather than a South African breakthrough. So the likelier answer is that Canada advances not because Davies alone unlocks the game, but because his return adds a decisive extra weapon to a team that already has more quality and depth than South Africa.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jun 28

Under 2.5 goals at -151 is Martin Green’s lead pick for Sunday’s Canada-South Africa Round of 32 match in Inglewood, with a Round of 16 place at stake.
Eight of Canada’s last nine matches have finished with two or fewer total goals, and South Africa have not scored more than once in any game, supporting Green’s view of a slow, compact contest.
Canada still enter as clear favorites despite captain Alphonso Davies’ hamstring injury, priced at -155 on the 90-minute money line and -380 to advance; South Africa are +500 to win and +280 to go through.
Both teams are in the World Cup knockout stage for the first time after Canada finished second in Group B and South Africa placed second in Group A.