UBS Lifts Taiwan 2026 GDP Forecast to 9.9% as Exports Surge and Risks Recede
Updated
Updated · Focus Taiwan · Jun 22
UBS Lifts Taiwan 2026 GDP Forecast to 9.9% as Exports Surge and Risks Recede
1 articles · Updated · Focus Taiwan · Jun 22
Summary
UBS raised its 2026 Taiwan GDP growth forecast to 9.9% from 8%, above the 9.2% consensus and slightly ahead of the government's 9.64% estimate.
Strong exports drove the upgrade: Taiwan's economy grew 14.5% in the first quarter, and UBS said second-quarter growth could reach double digits with ease.
Manufacturing momentum also improved after a March oil-shock slowdown, with Taiwan's PMI climbing to 56.1 in April and May and outperforming other emerging markets.
A U.S.-Iran memorandum on ending military operations also reduced geopolitical uncertainty, while UBS said inflation should stay manageable despite May CPI rising 2.2% on energy prices.
With exports equal to 69.5% of GDP in 2025 and AI server and semiconductor shipments pushing sales to records, UBS expects Taiwan's central bank to keep rates unchanged.