Portugal, Colombia Face Group K Decider as DR Congo Chases 4-Point World Cup Path

Q: Can Portugal's star-studded squad secure the group's top spot, or will an already-qualified Colombia spoil their plans?

Portugal can take Group K, but only by beating Colombia; anything less leaves Colombia in first place. The stakes are straightforward. Colombia already has six points and is through to the Round of 32. A draw or win against Portugal secures the group. Portugal, on four points, is also in a strong position to advance, but it must win in Miami to jump Colombia and finish first. There is a credible case for Portugal doing it. Roberto Martínez’s side has the stronger recent form, with only two losses in its last 22 matches, and it arrives off a 5-0 win over Uzbekistan. Cristiano Ronaldo has again been decisive, and Portugal’s squad depth around him — including Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Vitinha and Gonçalo Ramos — gives it more attacking variety than most teams in the group. Opta’s pre-match simulation also made Portugal a slight favorite, giving it a 51.6% chance of winning. Still, Colombia is well positioned to spoil those plans. It has already beaten Uzbekistan and DR Congo, needs only a result, and has shown the balance that has made it a dark-horse candidate. That changes the tactical picture: Portugal must chase the win, while Colombia can be more controlled and pragmatic. So Portugal absolutely can secure top spot, and the numbers suggest it has a real chance. But Colombia holds the simpler path and the margin for error. If Portugal is to win the group, it will have to earn it outright.

Q: With their fans barred from entry, can DR Congo's 'Leopards' pull off a World Cup miracle on the pitch against Uzbekistan?

Yes — DR Congo can realistically beat Uzbekistan, but reaching the Round of 32 would still require help from results elsewhere and likely a strong enough margin to compete in the best third-place race. On the pitch, this is not a long-shot upset. DR Congo drew 1-1 with Portugal and lost only 1-0 to Colombia, showing defensive discipline against stronger opposition. Uzbekistan, by contrast, has lost twice, including a 5-0 defeat to Portugal, and enters the match with a -7 goal difference. Opta’s simulations also give DR Congo the edge, and several analysts have projected a narrow Leopards win, often 1-0. The bigger challenge is what a win means. DR Congo starts on one point, so only victory keeps them alive. Three points would likely put them into contention for one of the eight best third-place spots, but that race is tight, with other third-place teams already sitting on three or four points and better goal differences. To climb as high as second in Group K, DR Congo would need both a sizable win over Uzbekistan and a Portugal loss to Colombia. The fan issue is real. Many Congolese supporters have been unable to attend because of travel restrictions linked to the Ebola outbreak, and the federation has even sought ticket refunds from FIFA. That removes a potential emotional lift in Atlanta. Even so, the Leopards’ form suggests they have a genuine chance to deliver the result they need. The “miracle” is less beating Uzbekistan than turning that win into qualification.

3 articles · Updated · FOX Sports · Jun 26

7:30 p.m. ET kicks off Group K’s final matchday, with Colombia on 6 points and Portugal on 4 meeting to decide first place.
Colombia has already reached the Round of 32 and wins the group with a draw or victory, while Portugal advances with a win or draw and takes first with a win.
DR Congo, on 1 point, must beat Uzbekistan to stay alive and could even climb to second if Colombia defeat Portugal and tiebreakers break its way.
Uzbekistan starts from 0 points and a -7 goal difference, leaving a win as its only route to a third-place berth and even that unlikely.