Trader Adds NESR on Saudi Oil Resumption as Micron Rally Lifts Nasdaq 100 0.8%

Q: With chip supply chains so concentrated in Asia, what single geopolitical event could halt the global AI boom overnight?

A serious disruption of Taiwan’s chip exports—most plausibly a Chinese blockade, quarantine, or military crisis around Taiwan—is the single event most likely to stop the AI boom overnight. The reason is concentration. TSMC in Taiwan makes about 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors and nearly all leading-edge chips used to train frontier AI models. Nvidia GPUs, custom AI accelerators for Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta, and much of the broader AI server buildout depend on that output. If those shipments stop, there is no near-term substitute elsewhere because advanced capacity, packaging, and qualification cycles are too limited. The market backdrop in the Micron-driven rally underscores that vulnerability. AI demand is already pushing memory and storage prices sharply higher, exposing how tight the supply chain is even without a geopolitical shock. A Taiwan disruption would be far more severe than ordinary shortages: it would hit logic chips, advanced packaging, and downstream server production at once, freezing data-center expansion and delaying AI deployment globally. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is another major risk because it can choke off helium and energy flows vital to chipmaking in Taiwan and South Korea. That could also cripple AI hardware production. But the most immediate and systemically dangerous single event remains a Taiwan crisis, because it directly cuts off the core manufacturing base for the advanced chips the global AI boom runs on.

2 articles · Updated · TheStreet · Jun 25

NESR was added to the portfolio after news that Saudi oil shipments are resuming, a sign supply lines are being restored and could support Middle East oil-services demand.
Micron's blowout earnings and higher outlook drove chip and storage shares higher, lifting the Nasdaq 100 about 0.8% even as the Magnificent Seven ETF fell roughly 1.5%.
That split pushed the trader away from big tech and chips, with cash held near 45% and most exposure concentrated in biotech, where the IBB ETF gained another 2.5%.
NESR also appealed on valuation and growth: EPS is projected at $0.83 in 2025, $1.65 in 2026 and $2.41 in 2027, implying a forward P/E of about 14.