SpaceX Options Imply 40% Chance of Drop Below $130 by Mid-September
Updated
Updated · The Motley Fool · Jun 27
SpaceX Options Imply 40% Chance of Drop Below $130 by Mid-September
3 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · Jun 27
Summary
Options trading tracked by Susquehanna indicates a 40% probability that SpaceX shares fall below $130 by mid-September, putting IPO buyers at risk of at least a 3.7% loss from the $135 offer price.
That caution follows a blockbuster debut: SpaceX raised more than $85 billion after an overallotment, the world’s biggest IPO, and the stock has climbed by double digits since listing.
Valuation and spending are driving the downside concern. Morningstar pegged fair value at $63 before the IPO, while SpaceX trades at more than 100 times sales.
The company is still deeply investment-heavy, especially in AI, where capital spending hit $12 billion last year and helped push SpaceX to a $4.9 billion loss, suggesting durable profitability remains distant.
Is SpaceX's record IPO launching a tech revolution or the market's biggest bubble?
Can Starlink’s profits fund Musk's colossal AI gamble, or will it sink the entire company?
SpaceX’s $3 Trillion Debut: Market Volatility, Options Frenzy, and the Valuation Divide
Overview
SpaceX’s IPO sparked strong market enthusiasm, causing its share price to surge 19% on the first trading day and briefly pushing its market capitalization above $3 trillion. This excitement continued for several days, with the stock peaking at $225.64. However, the initial rally was quickly followed by a sharp selloff, highlighting the volatility driven by speculative trading, options market activity, and major news like a large bond offering. The report shows how these interconnected events, from the IPO launch to rapid price swings, shaped investor sentiment and set the stage for ongoing uncertainty in SpaceX’s early days as a public company.