Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 27
Economists Lift US Core Inflation View to 3.2%, Pushing Fed Cuts to 2027
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 27

Economists Lift US Core Inflation View to 3.2%, Pushing Fed Cuts to 2027

3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 27

Summary

  • Bloomberg-surveyed economists now see core PCE inflation rising 3.2% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, up from their prior forecast.
  • Higher inflation expectations, along with upgraded job-creation estimates, led forecasters to drop any expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut until well into 2027.
  • Overall US inflation forecasts were little changed at 3.5%, suggesting the shift in the rates outlook was driven mainly by stickier underlying price pressures.
  • The revised outlook points to a longer stretch of steady Fed policy as resilient labor demand and persistent core inflation keep pressure on policymakers.

Insights

With inflation driven by global conflict and tariffs, are the Fed's traditional interest rate tools now obsolete?
As high rates persist until 2027, is the traditional path to American financial security permanently altered?
Are economists and the Fed overlooking recession risks by focusing too heavily on last year's inflation data?