Four 2026 World Cup Third-Place Teams Advance on 4 Points as 4 Knockout Spots Remain
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Jun 27
Four 2026 World Cup Third-Place Teams Advance on 4 Points as 4 Knockout Spots Remain
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 27
Summary
Sweden, Ecuador, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Paraguay have already clinched round-of-32 places after finishing third in their groups, each with 4 points despite goal differentials ranging from 0 to -2.
The expanded 48-team format sends 8 of 12 third-place teams through, making 4 points effectively enough to qualify, while 3 points leaves teams dependent on goal difference and 2 points is not enough.
Senegal sit closest to safety among the remaining third-place finishers at 3 points and +2 goal difference, with The Athletic model giving them a 98% chance of advancing; South Korea are at 63% and Scotland at 7%.
Uruguay are already out after finishing third in Group H with 2 points, underscoring how little margin remains for teams still waiting on Saturday's final group matches.
With 8 of 12 groups completed, the last 4 third-place berths are most likely to come from Group L, followed by Groups G, J and K, before the bracket is finalized.