France, Norway Chase Group I Top Spot as Senegal Need 2-Goal Win for 3 Points

Q: Without their head coach, can France fend off Norway to secure an easier path in the knockout rounds?

Yes. France are strongly placed to get the result they need against Norway and lock in the more favorable knockout route, even without Didier Deschamps on the touchline. The key fact is that France do not need to win. Because they lead Group I on goal difference, a draw is enough to finish first. That would send them into a Round of 32 tie against a third-placed team from Groups D, F or G, rather than a tougher meeting with Ivory Coast, who await the runner-up. Deschamps’ absence is significant on a human level, with the France coach back home for his mother’s funeral, but it is less damaging tactically than it might be for most teams. Assistant Guy Stephan is expected to take charge, and France’s squad depth remains one of the strongest in the tournament. With players such as Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and a defense led by William Saliba and Jules Koundé, France have enough quality and experience to manage the occasion. Norway are capable of making this difficult, especially with Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, but the context slightly favors France. Norway must win to take top spot, while France can approach the match with more control and less risk. There were also indications Norway could rotate after already qualifying. The latest reported outcome confirms France handled the situation emphatically: they beat Norway 4-1, with Dembélé scoring a hat-trick, to finish top of Group I and secure the easier path.

Q: For Senegal and Iraq, does the expanded World Cup format offer genuine hope or just prolong inevitable elimination?

For Senegal, the expanded format offers real hope; for Iraq, it mostly delays a likely exit, even if it keeps a mathematical path open. The key change is structural. In the 48-team World Cup, eight of the 12 third-placed teams reach the Round of 32. Under the old 32-team format, Senegal and Iraq would already be out because France and Norway have taken the top two spots in Group I. Instead, both still enter their final match alive. For Senegal, that hope is credible. They are on zero points but only -3 on goal difference, and a win over Iraq would give them three points — usually the minimum needed to stay in the third-place race. Forecasts underline that this is not fantasy: one model gives Senegal a 52 percent chance of advancing, while Opta rates it even higher at 72.2 percent if results break their way. Because Iraq are weaker on paper and six goals worse in goal difference, Senegal control a realistic route. For Iraq, the format offers hope in the narrowest sense. They are still alive only because third place can qualify, but their -6 goal difference leaves them needing something close to a rout — likely around 5-0 — to become serious contenders. Models put their chances at about 1 percent. So the expansion is doing both things at once: it gives Senegal a genuine lifeline, while for Iraq it mainly extends the tournament by one meaningful match rather than creating a truly plausible escape.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jun 26

Friday’s final Group I matches leave all four places unsettled even though France and Norway are already through on six points, with their Boston meeting deciding first place.
France lead Norway on goal difference, so anything short of a Norway win sends Les Bleus through as group winners; the runner-up will face Ivory Coast in the round of 32.
Senegal and Iraq, both on 0 points, still have a narrow path to advance as one of the best third-placed teams through their simultaneous match in Toronto.
Senegal’s -3 goal difference means a 2-goal win would likely be enough to top the current three-point third-place rankings, while Iraq’s -6 leaves them needing roughly a 5-0 victory; a draw eliminates both.
The group winner next meets the third-placed team from Group D, F or G on June 29, while France will be without coach Didier Deschamps, who returned home for his mother’s funeral.