David Backs Spain at -145 and Mbappé to Score in 3 World Cup Picks

Q: Can underdog Cape Verde defy the odds once more to secure a historic spot in the knockout round?

Yes. Cape Verde is in a strong position to reach the knockout round, and the numbers as well as the group math give the underdog a real chance to finish the job. Their case is built on results, not sentiment. Cape Verde has already taken points from Spain in a 0-0 draw and from Uruguay in a 2-2 draw, an exceptional return for a World Cup debutant. Those performances showed two useful traits: defensive discipline against a possession-heavy favorite and enough attacking threat to punish a stronger side in transition. The path is clear. A win over Saudi Arabia would send Cape Verde through automatically. A draw could also be enough if Spain avoids defeat against Uruguay, because that would keep Cape Verde ahead of or level with Uruguay in the race for second. Even if they finish third, a point would still leave them in the conversation for one of the best third-place spots in the expanded 48-team format. The matchup also helps. Saudi Arabia has only one point and likely must chase the game, which could open space for Cape Verde on the counter. Pre-match expectations also lean Cape Verde’s way, with analysts highlighting a low-scoring game but giving the island nation a realistic edge. There is still risk: a loss would almost certainly end the run. But based on form, defensive organization, and multiple qualification routes, Cape Verde has a credible chance to produce one of the tournament’s standout stories and make the Round of 32.

Q: Will the hyped Haaland vs. Mbappé duel be a true battle or a strategic rest before the knockout stage?

It is more likely to be a managed contest than a full-throttle Haaland-vs.-Mbappé showdown. The main reason is the standings. Norway and France have already qualified from Group I with six points, and France needs only a draw to finish top because of its superior goal difference. That lowers the incentive to expose star players to unnecessary risk before the Round of 32. The biggest uncertainty is on Norway’s side. Reports indicate Erling Haaland may not play, precisely because Norway’s progression is already secured. If he is rested or used only briefly, the much-hyped duel loses much of its edge. Norway also has defender Julian Ryerson out injured, another factor that could encourage caution in team selection and game management. France has more reason to stay competitive, since top spot is still at stake, and Mbappé is in strong form with four goals. He is also central to the Golden Boot race, level with Haaland and behind only Messi. Even so, France is missing William Saliba and Marcus Thuram, and assistant Guy Stéphan is standing in for Didier Deschamps, which may further encourage a controlled approach rather than an all-out statement performance. So the match should still have quality and moments of individual ambition, especially from Mbappé. But given the qualification picture and the possibility of Haaland being rested, the “new Messi vs. Ronaldo” billing is more likely to be diluted by strategic squad management than decided in a true head-to-head battle.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Jun 26

Three World Cup 2026 betting picks lead David’s latest slate: France over Norway, Spain over Uruguay, and Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia to finish level with under 2.5 goals.
France’s edge hinges on Norway potentially resting Erling Haaland despite his four goals; David backs Kylian Mbappé to score anytime at -125 and first at +340.
Spain enters needing only a draw to advance from Group H, but David still favors the Euro champions at -145 because Uruguay has opened with two disappointing draws.
Cape Verde can reach the knockout round with a win and could advance with a draw plus a Uruguay loss, while Saudi Arabia likely needs both a victory and outside help.
David comes into the slate after a 1-3 day, with his only win the under in Japan-Sweden.