Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 26
OpenAI IPO Seen Delayed to 2027 as Kalshi Prices 59% Odds by March 1
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 26

OpenAI IPO Seen Delayed to 2027 as Kalshi Prices 59% Odds by March 1

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 26

Summary

  • Kalshi traders now put a 59% chance on OpenAI officially announcing an IPO by March 1, 2027, after a New York Times report said the company may push its market debut into next year.
  • One-in-three odds remain for an announcement before January 1, but the market assigns a 73% chance by June 2027, with contracts resolving if the SEC clears an S-1, an IPO is priced, or a ticker is issued.
  • June 8 had been a key marker because OpenAI confidentially filed to go public, and 2026 was widely seen as the likely listing year before the latest delay expectations emerged.
  • SpaceX's recent IPO performance has made OpenAI advisers more cautious, the report said, after an initial rally and subsequent drop raised concerns that retail investors may be less eager buyers.
  • Anthropic, which also confidentially filed in early June, is still seen moving faster, with Kalshi traders assigning a 70% chance of an official IPO announcement by December.

Insights

Amidst staggering losses, can OpenAI justify a $1 trillion valuation before its rival Anthropic steals the IPO spotlight?
With regulators targeting its top rival, is OpenAI’s biggest IPO threat Wall Street jitters or a Washington crackdown?