Russia Prepares Baltic or Poland Provocation as Ukraine Strikes 2,000km Inside Its Territory
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jun 26
Russia Prepares Baltic or Poland Provocation as Ukraine Strikes 2,000km Inside Its Territory
3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jun 26
Summary
Latvian intelligence and a second NATO source say Russia is preparing a possible provocation against the Baltic states or Poland, though not a full-scale second front.
Hybrid attacks are seen as the likelier form—missiles, drones or other signaling actions—meant to test NATO cohesion and pressure allies to curb support for Ukraine.
The warnings come as Russia’s advance in Ukraine has stalled and Kyiv’s deep-strike campaign reaches up to 2,000km inside Russia; last week nearly 200 drones hit sites in Moscow.
NATO’s concern is sharpened by past Russian sabotage, including 2024 firebombs in DHL parcels and 19 decoy drones that entered Polish airspace last September, forcing allied jets to scramble.
The risk lands before NATO’s summit in Ankara and amid fresh uncertainty over US commitment after Donald Trump said he felt “let down” by European allies over Iran.
How can NATO counter Russian hybrid attacks without escalating into a full-scale war?
Is NATO's political unity a greater vulnerability than its military strength?
Why are Western militaries lagging behind Ukraine in low-cost drone defense?
Hybrid Warfare on NATO’s Eastern Flank: Russian Provocations, Ukrainian Deep Strikes, and Alliance Deterrence in 2026
Overview
NATO’s eastern flank is facing a heightened risk of Russian provocations, mainly through hybrid attacks like drones and missiles. While Latvian intelligence sees no immediate threat of a full-scale invasion, they warn that Russia could rebuild its military strength in three to five years. The main concern now is Russia’s use of limited provocations to intimidate NATO and test its unity. Moscow uses information operations and drone incidents to avoid direct blame, as seen in recent events like a UAV explosion in Moldova. These tactics are designed to destabilize the region and challenge European security.