SemiAnalysis Sees 50% of New US Datacenters Going BTM by 2028 as Grid Headroom Turns Negative
Updated
Updated · newsletter.semianalysis.com · Jun 25
SemiAnalysis Sees 50% of New US Datacenters Going BTM by 2028 as Grid Headroom Turns Negative
1 articles · Updated · newsletter.semianalysis.com · Jun 25
Summary
More than half of new US datacenters will rely on behind-the-meter power from 2028, SemiAnalysis said, projecting the BTM equipment market will exceed 50GW a year by 2029.
21GW of datacenter power demand in 2026 is forecast to jump to 84GW by 2030, while net-new accredited grid capacity adds only about 15GW annually now and does not turn meaningfully higher until later in the decade.
2027 is the tipping point in SemiAnalysis' model: available grid headroom approaches zero and then turns negative as reserve margins tighten, with PJM's 2027/28 auction already showing a roughly 6.5GW UCAP shortfall.
Less than 10GW of gas capacity is expected to be added in each of 2026 and 2027, and solar, wind and batteries contribute far less firm capacity on an ELCC basis than their nameplate ratings suggest.
Texas is emerging as a key test bed for hybrid datacenter power structures, where operators pair on-site generation with limited grid access to secure faster, more certain energization than traditional interconnection allows.
Will today's urgent power solutions for AI become tomorrow's expensive, stranded assets once the grid modernizes?
Is the AI revolution's power demand forcing an unavoidable return to localized fossil fuel generation?
As tech giants build private power grids, who will pay to maintain the public grid for everyone else?
149 GW and Counting: The Rise of Behind-the-Meter Datacenters and Their Impact on US Energy, Environment, and Policy
Overview
Behind-the-Meter (BTM) datacenters have quickly shifted from a niche idea to a major focus in infrastructure, as shown by a record number of mentions in US public meetings in March 2026—three times higher than the previous year. This surge reflects growing recognition and adoption of BTM strategies, with ambitious plans to add 149 GW of BTM capacity by 2030. These datacenters generate their own power on-site, helping to ease pressure on the strained electric grid and allowing faster deployment. The rapid rise of BTM datacenters highlights their increasing importance in meeting the soaring demand for data and reliable energy.