Oliveira Says McGregor Picked Holloway for UFC 329 to Avoid Him

Q: After a five-year layoff, can McGregor's star power defy the +215 betting odds in his monumental return?

Yes—but only if McGregor can make it an early fight. The +215 line reflects real competitive concerns, not a lack of belief in his drawing power. The case for McGregor is clear. Even after years away, he remains one of MMA’s most dangerous early-round punchers, and Charles Oliveira’s read matches that: the first two rounds are where McGregor is most threatening. McGregor has also fought at 170 pounds before, while Holloway is making his welterweight debut. Add McGregor’s confidence, a full camp, and the fact he already owns a 2013 win over Holloway, and there is a plausible upset path. But the odds make sense. McGregor has not fought since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier in 2021, and his recent form is poor at 1-3 since becoming a two-division champion. He also withdrew from a planned 2024 return because of a broken toe, reinforcing concerns about inactivity and durability. Holloway, by contrast, has stayed active at elite level, gone 5-3 in that span, and built momentum with major wins, including his BMF title run before losing that belt to Oliveira. The biggest question is cardio and pace. Holloway’s volume, durability, and five-round experience make him the safer pick if McGregor does not score early. Star power can sell the event and fuel belief, but it does not erase ring rust. McGregor can absolutely beat the odds, but the evidence suggests his window is narrow: fast start, early damage, and ideally a finish before Holloway’s pace takes over.

3 articles · Updated · MMA Fighting · Jun 25

Charles Oliveira said Conor McGregor "ran from" him by choosing Max Holloway for UFC 329 on July 11 instead of facing the newly crowned BMF champion.
Oliveira said the matchup was never formally offered, but he believed the winner of his March victory over Holloway was expected to get McGregor next and that McGregor saw Holloway as the easier path.
Five years after McGregor's last fight — a 2021 leg-break loss to Dustin Poirier — Oliveira called the Holloway bout dangerous early for McGregor because of his knockout power.
Holloway's edge grows if the fight extends, Oliveira said, pointing to the Hawaiian's experience in long main events and 12 recent trips into the championship rounds.
Oliveira said he still wants Justin Gaethje next to unify the UFC and BMF belts, even as McGregor and Holloway headline the next numbered card in Las Vegas.