Thailand MPC Lifts 2026 GDP Forecast to 2.3% as AI Demand Drives Exports

3 articles · Updated · Nation Thailand · Jun 24

Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.3% from 1.5% and unanimously kept the policy rate at 1.00%, signaling a stronger outlook but still uneven recovery.
AI and cloud spending by major US tech firms, a broader global technology upcycle and easing Middle East tensions lifted demand for Thai electronics, lowered the Dubai oil assumption to about $90 a barrel and reduced pressure on manufacturers and tourism.
The MPC still warned the current account could briefly slip into deficit as higher crude imports and fuel stockpiling of about 100 days outweigh gains from refined-oil exports, alongside seasonal profit repatriation by foreign investors.
SMEs and households remain the weak spots: SME lending continues to contract, household debt is around 86% of GDP, and incomes are still lagging living costs despite manageable core inflation.
The committee said longer-term growth will depend on exports, technology investment and government support, with targeted help for debtors and vulnerable businesses needed as the baht stays under pressure from a stronger US dollar.