SCB-Julius Baer Upgrades Communications for H2 2026, Favors Emerging Markets and Gold
Updated
Updated · Bangkok Post · Jun 23
SCB-Julius Baer Upgrades Communications for H2 2026, Favors Emerging Markets and Gold
1 articles · Updated · Bangkok Post · Jun 23
Summary
SCB-Julius Baer raised communications to overweight for H2 2026, citing stronger AI-driven monetisation at internet platforms and steady shareholder returns from telecom operators.
The bank said the Iran war is accelerating existing shifts rather than creating new ones, with defence, energy, supply-chain and AI investment reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate backdrop.
Emerging markets remain preferred on a softer dollar view and better-than-expected earnings, led by AI-linked Asian markets; it still favors China, especially A-shares over H-shares.
In fixed income, it sees value in duration at current real yields and prefers EM hard-currency corporate debt and local-currency bonds, arguing inflation expectations remain anchored.
The firm still expects a weaker dollar over time and kept a constructive gold view, saying central-bank buying and renewed safe-haven demand should support the metal despite recent volatility.
With the US dollar's dominance fading, what will replace it as the world's premier safe-haven asset?
As AI's energy demand soars amid war-fueled shocks, is a global power crisis the next inevitable shift?
Is geopolitical conflict the new engine of economic growth, or a hidden drain on global prosperity?
Key Investment Themes for H2 2026: Diversification Beyond the US, Emerging Markets Surge, and Gold’s Safe-Haven Role
Overview
As of mid-2026, the global economy is experiencing a significant transformation, marked by a slowdown that is not recessionary and a systemic reset of the international economic order. Growth is projected to ease, influenced by factors such as tariffs, trade fragmentation, and elevated policy uncertainty, with recent geopolitical events like the U.S.–Iran conflict adding to the complexity. In this environment, SCB Julius Baer recommends that ultra-high net worth investors adopt a strategic, globally diversified approach for H2 2026, moving beyond the US market to capture new opportunities and manage risks in a rapidly changing world.