Planet Money Revisits Prediction Markets That Beat Polls 74% of the Time
Updated
Updated · NPR · Jun 24
Planet Money Revisits Prediction Markets That Beat Polls 74% of the Time
3 articles · Updated · NPR · Jun 24
Summary
Planet Money published a Throughline excerpt tracing how prediction markets emerged, spotlighting election betting as a long-running tool for forecasting political outcomes.
The episode says election wagering was common until the 1940s, when the practice largely disappeared despite an earlier era in which party bosses were expected to bet publicly on their candidates.
In the 1980s, economists created the Iowa Electronic Markets, which the report says outperformed election polling 74% of the time.
The broader history extends beyond elections: the full Throughline episode also covers early markets tied to terrorism and military uses of prediction markets.