Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 24
Majority of 33 Economists See PBOC Holding Rates Through 2026
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 24

Majority of 33 Economists See PBOC Holding Rates Through 2026

2 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 24

Summary

  • More than half of 33 economists polled by Bloomberg now expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its policy interest rate unchanged through 2026.
  • The shift marks a pullback from earlier expectations for easing, with the remaining economists still forecasting only a small cut by the end of this year.
  • Goldman Sachs and Nomura had already dropped their calls for monetary easing this year, reinforcing the broader move toward a higher-for-longer outlook in China.
  • A PBOC adviser said a rate cut still remains possible, leaving the door open even as consensus increasingly swings toward a prolonged pause.

Insights

As exports boom while domestic demand slumps, can China's economy avoid a hard landing without broad rate cuts?
Is China's central bank sacrificing its consumers to protect the yuan, risking a much deeper economic crisis?
With strong Q1 growth but collapsing retail sales, what is truly happening inside China's 'two-speed' economy?